Ok, so first off, in the NL there are essentially only three pitchers that are in consideration at this point for the Cy Young award: Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, and Tim Lincecum. So, lets talk about Webb first. Brandon Webb, the sinkerball extraordinaire who is the ace of the Dbacks' staff, is currently sitting at a 19-7 record (1st in the NL), and a 3.41 ERA (10th in the NL). These are often times the most looked at stats by Cy Young voters. And until recently, Webb was looking like the runaway candidate for the Cy Young this year, before taking 3 straight losses and inflating his ERA from 2.74 to his current 3.41. Now, after his recent rough patches, and the Dbacks falling 3.5 games out of the NL West lead, the only number that can really argue Webb as the Cy Young winner is his win total of 19-7, which I will get back to later. If Webb wins the remainder of his starts and/ or the Dbacks end up winning the NL West with Webb playing a significant role, it would give Webb a very strong case for the award, but only time will tell and as of right now, it looks like Webb is quickly loosing ground in the race.Moving on to CC Sabathia, the reigning AL Cy Young winning Vallejo Native. Sabathia moved from the struggling Cleveland Indians to the young Milwaukee Brewers in a trade deadline deal. Now, it cannot be argued that Sabathia has been dominant since his move to the NL; however, the question is with him- do you look at his stats as a whole or only his time in the NL? If you look at his stats on a whole, Sabathia sports a good but not great win total of 15-8 in addition to a great 2.81 ERA, which I will get back to later. If you include his stats as a whole, he is tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with none other than Tim Lincecum at 225. Now, if you look at what he's done only in the NL, he eye-popping numbers: 9-0, 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games. However, if you only take Sabathia's numbers in the NL, can you really give CC the Cy Young based on only 13 starts compared to Lincecum's 29?
Finally, there is young Tim Lincecum, sporting an NL leading 2.54 ERA, a tied for Major league leading 225 K's, and a record of 16-3 on the sub .500 SF Giants. First off, let me address the arguments against Lincecum's case for Cy Young. Traditionally, the Cy Young has often times gone to the pitcher with the highest win total, which in this case is projected to be Brandon Webb (19-7). However, Lincecum isn't too far behind, as he is currently tied for 2nd in the NL in wins (16-3). Also, if you are going to include wins, then you must also look at losses right? And if you get a winning percentage from each pitcher, Webb sits at (.731), while Lincecum is at (.842). So, besides number of wins, Lincecum trumps Webb in every other major statistical category, including winning percentage, and it really isn't that close.Then, it can also be argued that Lincecum plays for a sub-.500 team that is going to miss the playoffs. In my opinion, since the Cy Young award is an individual award and not a team award, not only does the number of wins a pitcher has have less weight, but it also seems to me that what Lincecum has done this year is even more impressive and should even help his case for Cy Young. Had the Giants' bullpen performed better or he was given more run support, Lincecum could quite possibly have 20-21 wins right now, in which case there wouldn't be any argument over who was the Cy Young winner this season.
Next, there is the issue about what is more deserving of Cy Young recognition, a short sample of near perfection (Sabathia in the NL), or prolonged dominance (Lincecum)? And, what I believe is that you cannot look at Sabathia's numbers in the NL only and believe that he could have been this dominant all season. Looking at Sabathia's season numbers, he has a 2.81 ERA compared to Lincecum's 2.54 in addition to having a 15-8 record compared to Lincecum's 16-3. Now, all pitchers go through ups and downs over the course of the year- a pitcher can go on a month or two tear only to cool off and get shelled his next few outings. That's the thing about baseball- the season is so long that there are rarely flukes. Why do you think you almost always see the same players in discussion for best players in the league? Its because the length of the season weeds out all the players who aren't truly great. Greatness in baseball revolves around being great and being great consistently. Take for example Chris Shelton formerly of the Detroit Tigers- in the beginning of the 2006 season, he hit 10 HRs in April and was being heralded as a potential HR king for the season. What happened after that month? He went ice cold, and managed a measly 6 more HRs before the All-Star Break, after which he was sent down to the Minor Leagues.I know Chris Shelton is an extreme example and i know that Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in the Majors, but it helps to prove my point about baseball- its an 162 game season and you cannot be rewarded for being brilliant for half of it and only decent the other half. Sabathia has been amazing since he got to Milwaukee, but is what he did in the beginning of the season to be completely forgotten? If you still aren't convinced, think about this: If Sabathia had been this good for the first half of the season, only to pitch the second half like he did in Cleveland, would he even be in the discussion for the Cy Young right now?
Lincecum has been consitently dominant over the course of the season and he has the stats to prove it. When it boils down to it, it just seems like there's too much evidence against Webb and Sabathia to argue against the numbers that Timmy has put up this season. Are the Giants making the playoffs? No. But why should Lincecum's achievements this season be affected at all by that? This isn't the MVP award, which means the player is most valuable to his team's success. The Cy Young is an individual award, and if you look at it individually, Tim Lincecum is the clear choice for the 2008 NL Cy Young.
